Uncertainty analysis of in vessel retention in three-layer melt pool configuration

Zhen CAO; Kemei CAO; Jiayun WANG

doi:10.11889/j.0253-3219.2018.hjs.41.100605

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Uncertainty analysis of in vessel retention in three-layer melt pool configuration

NUCLEAR ENERGY SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING | 更新时间：2021-05-19

- Uncertainty analysis of in vessel retention in three-layer melt pool configuration
- NUCLEAR TECHNIQUES Vol. 41, Issue 10, Article number: 100605(2018)
- 作者机构：
  
  上海核工程研究设计院有限公司上海 200233
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.11889/j.0253-3219.2018.hjs.41.100605
  CLC： TL364.4
- Received：02 May 2018，
  
  Revised：18 July 2018，
  
  Published：10 October 2018
- 稿件说明：
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Zhen CAO, Kemei CAO, Jiayun WANG. Uncertainty analysis of in vessel retention in three-layer melt pool configuration[J]. Nuclear techniques, 2018, 41(10): 100605
DOI：

Zhen CAO, Kemei CAO, Jiayun WANG. Uncertainty analysis of in vessel retention in three-layer melt pool configuration[J]. Nuclear techniques, 2018, 41(10): 100605 DOI： 10.11889/j.0253-3219.2018.hjs.41.100605.

摘要

为进一步量化三层熔池结构中熔融物堆内滞留（In Vessel Retention，IVR）的不确定性，应用自主开发的程序SPIRE对某大功率电站进行了分析。分析结果表明：和两层熔池结构相比，三层熔池结构中熔池底部安全裕量显著降低，氧化层顶部则有所增加。抽样生成的125 000组工况中，两层熔池发生失效的条件概率为0，而三层熔池情况下轻金属层区域存在失效风险，条件失效概率为7.11×10

-5

。敏感性分析结果表明：在本文研究范围内，输入参数的概率分布对结果影响较小，铀氧化份额会对条件失效概率产生显著影响，堆芯熔化份额对氧化层顶部的安全裕量产生一定影响。

Abstract

Background

Uncertainty exists in melt pool parameters when postulated severe accident occurs in reactor

and heat flux distribution obtained by two-layer or three-layer melt pool configuration would vary from each other

hence it is necessary to analyze the uncertainty of in vessel retention (IVR) in different configurations.

Purpose

This study aims to investigate quantization uncertainty brought by three-layer configuration.

Methods

First of all

the self-developed code SPIRE was employed to verify with references and analyze the uncertainty of IVR in three-layer melt pool configuration based on core damage frequency (CDF). The input parameters were obtained according to the simulation results of accident scenarios. Then the three-layer melt pool configuration results were compared with that of two-layer melt pool configuration. Finally

uncertainty analysis was carried out based on Monte Carlo sampling and sensitive analysis.

Result

Compared with the two-layer melt pool configuration results

the safety margin at bottom of melt was decreased notably whilst safety margin at top of ceramic layer was increased. In 125 000 cases generated by sampling

conditional failure probability in two-layer condition is 0

while in three-layer condition is 7.11×10

-5

(failure occurred in light metallic layer).

Conclusion

Sensitivity analysis showed that

within the scope of this study

the probability distribution for input parameters had little influence on the result; conditional failure probability was notably affected by the uranium oxidation fraction; melt fraction of core had certainty influence on safety margin at top of ceramic layer.

关键词

Keywords

references

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